Fun with Baseball

A long time ago, Bill James noted that, in a baseball player's career, most often, the number of Hits, "secondary bases" (which James defines as [Total bases-Hits], Steals, and Walks; I add Hit by Pitch), and Runs+RBI will most often be about the same. In case you're curious, George Brett has the closest career spread: 3154 Hits, 3220 Secondary Bases (3187 by James's method), and 3179 R+RBI. In fact, his R and RBI are almost the same as one another, as well - 1583 and 1596, respectively.

Why am I telling you this? Well, I got to thinking about MVP votes in baseball, and how they usually go. I was thinking how important the traditional "Triple Crown" stats are: BA, HR, and RBI. But the voters aren't that superficial as to just throw those together and come up with something, are they? I'm not so sure. I started thinking about how, since the numbers above take the Triple Crown stats into account, one could, if one were willing, throw together a quick little formula, weighting each category (hitting for average, hitting for power/walking/basestealing, and run scoring/driving-in) equally. Why? Because the point is to be superficial. So I just divided each one by AB (not PA, because Batting Average is over AB, and I wanted all three on the same scale). Anyway, I needed a playing time component, so first I averaged those three into a number that looks like a batting average, and then I multiplied it by games played. I call it "MVPoints," because it needs a silly name. How reliably would this predict the league MVP in baseball, do you think? Well, I'll let yourself. In the table below, if the MVP did not lead his league in MVPoints, I put the leader. If he did, I put the runner-up, so there's some basis for comparison. Please keep in mind, this is NOT supposed to be a useful stat. It's just a thought experiment, more than anything. And for the record, in years in which a pitcher won the MVP, I'm using the position player who placed the highest in the voting in the first column. The actually winner will be noted to the side. Anyway, here goes:

Year Lg MVP MVPoints (Place) Other Player (Place) MVPoints
2010 NL Joey Votto 60.5 (2nd) Albert Pujols (1st) 63.6
2009 NL Albert Pujols 72.5 (1st) Prince Fielder (2nd) 65.9
2008 NL Albert Pujols 63.5 (1st) Lance Berkman (2nd) 63.0
2007 NL Jimmy Rollins 53.5 (13th) Prince Fielder (1st) 63.2
2006 NL Ryan Howard 68.7 (1st) Albert Pujols (2nd) 64.1
2005 NL Albert Pujols 66.2 (1st) Derrek Lee (2nd) 64.3
2004 NL Barry Bonds 102.5 (1st) Jim Edmonds (2nd) 66.2
2003 NL Barry Bonds 73.2 (1st) Todd Helton (2nd) 66.9
2002 NL Barry Bonds 90.5 (1st) Brian Giles (2nd) 68.1
2001 NL Barry Bonds 93.9 (1st) Sammy Sosa (2nd) 78.9
2000 NL Jeff Kent 63.1 (6th) Todd Helton (1st) 73.8
1999 NL Chipper Jones 68.1 (3rd) Jeff Bagwell (1st) 76.0
1998 NL Sammy Sosa 66.0 (3rd) Mark McGwire (1st) 84.2
1997 NL Larry Walker 72.5 (1st) Barry Bonds (2nd) 72.2
1996 NL Ken Caminiti 59.9 (7th) Barry Bonds (1st) 77.6
1995 NL Barry Larkin 46.1 (12th) Barry Bonds (1st) 62.6
1994 NL Jeff Bagwell 55.4 (1st) Barry Bonds (2nd) 50.8
1993 NL Barry Bonds 76.2 (1st) Lenny Dykstra (2nd) 57.6
1992 NL Barry Bonds 66.9 (1st) Fred McGriff (2nd) 55.6
1991 NL Terry Pendleton 46.7 (13th) Barry Bonds (1st) 62.7
1990 NL Barry Bonds 63.9 (1st) Ryne Sandberg (2nd) 53.5
1989 NL Kevin Mitchell 62.7 (1st) Howard Johnson (2nd) 57.4
1988 NL Kirk Gibson 51.3 (3rd) Darryl Strawberry (1st) 57.8
1987 NL Andre Dawson 51.7 (12th) Dale Murphy (1st) 64.2
1986 NL Mike Schmidt 59.4 (1st) Eric Davis (2nd) 56.6
1985 NL Willie McGee 49.1 (8th) Dale Murphy (1st) 58.0
1984 NL Ryne Sandberg 50.4 (5th) Dale Murphy (1st) 55.7
1983 NL Dale Murphy 63.5 (1st) Mike Schmidt (2nd) 60.7
1982 NL Dale Murphy 58.2 (1st) Mike Schmidt (2nd) 57.6
1981 NL Mike Schmidt 46.6 (1st) George Foster (2nd) 37.2
1980 NL Mike Schmidt 61.2 (1st) Keith Hernandez (2nd) 54.2
1979 NL Keith Hernandez 55.1 (3rd) Mike Schmidt (1st) 65.1
1979 NL Willie Stargell 42.2 (28th) Dave Winfield (2nd) 57.7
1978 NL Dave Parker 54.2 (4th) Greg Luzinski (1st) 56.3
1977 NL George Foster 62.7 (1st) Mike Schmidt (2nd) 61.8
1976 NL Joe Morgan 66.8 (1st) Mike Schmidt (2nd) 59.4
1975 NL Joe Morgan 64.1 (1st) Mike Schmidt (2nd) 57.7
1974 NL Steve Garvey 44.3 (18th) Mike Schmidt (1st) 63.3
1973 NL Pete Rose 43.7 (22nd) Darrell Evans (1st) 61.5
1972 NL Johnny Bench 55.7 (1st) Billy Williams (2nd) 55.4
1971 NL Joe Torre 55.5 (3rd) Willie Stargell (1st) 58.8
1970 NL Johnny Bench 57.4 (6th) Willie McCovey (1st) 68.2
1969 NL Willie McCovey 68.2 (1st) Jimmy Wynn (2nd) 62.7
1968 NL Pete Rose* 39.6 (13th) Willie McCovey (1st) 52.1 *Bob Gibson
1967 NL Orlando Cepeda 52.1 (5th) Hank Aaron (1st) 55.6
1966 NL Roberto Clemente 49.9 (8th) Hank Aaron (1st) 58.3
1965 NL Willie Mays 63.3 (1st) Frank Robinson (2nd) 56.9
1964 NL Ken Boyer 51.7 (5th) Willie Mays (1st) 62.0
1963 NL Dick Groat* 42.3 (15th) Hank Aaron (1st) 62.1 *Sandy Koufax
1962 NL Maury Wills 47.0 (17th) Frank Robinson (1st) 66.9
1961 NL Frank Robinson 63.3 (1st) Willie Mays (2nd) 61.8
1960 NL Dick Groat 32.4 (34th) Eddie Mathews (1st) 60.9
1959 NL Ernie Banks 58.3 (1st) Frank Robinson (2nd) 57.8
1958 NL Ernie Banks 57.1 (2nd) Willie Mays (1st) 57.2
1957 NL Hank Aaron 55.4 (3rd) Willie Mays (1st) 59.7
1956 NL Hank Aaron* 48.5 (9th) Duke Snider (1st) 59.5 *Don Newcombe
1955 NL Roy Campanella 47.1 (12th) Duke Snider (1st) 65.6
1954 NL Willie Mays 60.7 (3rd) Stan Musial (1st) 61.5
1953 NL Roy Campanella 58.9 (4th) Eddie Mathews (1st) 64.2
1952 NL Hank Sauer 52.7 (5th) Gil Hodges (1st) 55.7
1951 NL Roy Campanella 52.3 (7th) Ralph Kiner (1st) 67.0
1950 NL Stan Musial* 56.2 (2nd) Ralph Kiner (1st) 62.1 *Jim Konstanty
1949 NL Jackie Robinson 60.5 (3rd) Ralph Kiner (1st) 67.2
1948 NL Stan Musial 66.2 (1st) Ralph Kiner (2nd) 59.9
1947 NL Bob Elliott 52.5 (4th) Ralph Kiner (1st) 63.4
1946 NL Stan Musial 56.3 (1st) Enos Slaughter (2nd) 50.7
1945 NL Phil Cavarretta 46.9 (4th) Tommy Holmes (1st) 56.4
1944 NL Marty Marion 32.3 (29th) Bill Nicholson (1st) 58.7
1943 NL Stan Musial 52.4 (2nd) Bill Nicholson (1st) 52.8
1942 NL Enos Slaughter* 50.8 (3rd) Mel Ott (1st) 55.5 *Mort Cooper
1941 NL Dolph Camilli 58.0 (1st) Mel Ott (2nd) 51.4
1940 NL Frank McCormick 48.2 (6th) Johnny Mize (1st) 63.4
1939 NL Johnny Mize* 59.8 (1st) Dolph Camilli (2nd) 57.5 *Bucky Walters
1938 NL Ernie Lombardi 39.7 (12th) Mel Ott (1st) 63.0
1937 NL Joe Medwick 59.0 (1st) Mel Ott (2nd) 54.7
1936 NL Billy Herman* 44.8 (11th) Mel Ott (1st) 64.8 *Carl Hubbell
1935 NL Gabby Hartnett 39.9 (15th) Arky Vaughan (1st) 56.6
1934 NL Paul Waner* 49.8 (4th) Mel Ott (1st) 60.1 *Dizzy Dean
1933 NL Chuck Klein* 55.0 (1st) Mel Ott (2nd) 48.0 *Carl Hubbell
1932 NL Chuck Klein 62.4 (2nd) Mel Ott (1st) 62.8
1931 NL Frankie Frisch 38.6 (19th) Chuck Klein (1st) 54.5
2010 AL Josh Hamilton 49.5 (9th) Jose Bautista (1st) 66.3
2009 AL Joe Mauer 50.9 (12th) Jason Bay (1st) 59.0
2008 AL Dustin Pedroia 48.0 (18th) Grady Sizemore (1st) 54.2
2007 AL Alex Rodriguez 73.6 (1st) Carlos Pena (2nd) 64.5
2006 AL Justin Morneau 54.6 (9th) David Ortiz (1st) 66.0
2005 AL Alex Rodriguez 67.1 (1st) David Ortiz (2nd) 64.7
2004 AL Vladimir Guerrero 58.7 (2nd) Manny Ramirez (1st) 60.3
2003 AL Alex Rodriguez 64.1 (2nd) Carlos Delgado (1st) 68.6
2002 AL Miguel Tejada 51.5 (10th) Jim Thome (1st) 68.6
2001 AL Ichiro Suzuki 45.8 (27th) Jason Giambi (1st) 70.7
2000 AL Jason Giambi 71.7 (2nd) Carlos Delgado (1st) 72.9
1999 AL Ivan Rodriguez 49.1 (26th) Manny Ramirez (1st) 70.7
1998 AL Juan Gonzalez 59.6 (4th) Albert Belle (1st) 67.0
1997 AL Ken Griffey, Jr. 65.8 (1st) Frank Thomas (2nd) 61.6
1996 AL Juan Gonzalez 52.1 (19th) Jim Thome (1st) 67.5
1995 AL Mo Vaughn 53.8 (5th) Edgar Martinez (1st) 64.7
1994 AL Frank Thomas 57.6 (1st) Albert Belle (2nd) 47.8
1993 AL Frank Thomas 63.6 (2nd) John Olerud (1st) 63.8
1992 AL Kirby Puckett* 49.6 (7th) Frank Thomas (1st) 61.8 *Dennis Eckersley
1991 AL Cal Ripken, Jr. 53.6 (5th) Frank Thomas (1st) 62.4
1990 AL Rickey Henderson 58.2 (2nd) Cecil Fielder (1st) 62.0
1989 AL Robin Yount 52.6 (2nd) Fred McGriff (1st) 59.4
1988 AL Jose Canseco 62.1 (1st) Mike Greenwell (2nd) 56.2
1987 AL George Bell 56.6 (3rd) Dwight Evans (1st) 61.9
1986 AL Don Mattingly* 53.6 (3rd) Jesse Barfield (1st) 56.2 *Roger Clemens
1985 AL Don Mattingly 55.5 (4th) George Brett (1st) 61.7
1984 AL Kent Hrbek* 48.7 (10th) Eddie Murray (1st) 57.3 *Willie Hernandez
1983 AL Cal Ripken, Jr. 50.9 (5th) Eddie Murray (1st) 56.5
1982 AL Robin Yount 55.7 (3rd) Dwight Evans (1st) 58.6
1981 AL Rickey Henderson* 36.7 (2nd) Dwight Evans (1st) 40.1 *Rollie Fingers
1980 AL George Brett 50.2 (6th) Reggie Jackson (1st) 55.5
1979 AL Don Baylor 59.8 (2nd) Fred Lynn (1st) 61.3
1978 AL Jim Rice 59.0 (1st) Andre Thornton (2nd) 53.9
1977 AL Rod Carew 56.6 (3rd) Bobby Bonds (1st) 57.2
1976 AL Thurman Munson 41.3 (21st) Rod Carew (1st) 50.2
1975 AL Fred Lynn 53.2 (3rd) John Mayberry (1st) 59.3
1974 AL Jeff Burroughs 52.9 (2nd) Reggie Jackson (1st) 54.5
1973 AL Reggie Jackson 56.6 (1st) John Mayberry (2nd) 55.5
1972 AL Dick Allen 61.1 (1st) Bobby Murcer (2nd) 51.3
1971 AL Sal Bando* 48.2 (6th) Bobby Murcer (1st) 53.3 *Vida Blue
1970 AL Boog Powell 58.1 (4th) Carl Yastrzemski (1st) 67.8
1969 AL Harmon Killebrew 70.8 (1st) Reggie Jackson (2nd) 66.0
1968 AL Bill Freehan* 47.0 (4th) Carl Yastrzemski (1st) 54.8 *Denny McLain
1967 AL Carl Yastrzemski 64.7 (2nd) Harmon Killebrew (1st) 65.4
1966 AL Frank Robinson 64.2 (1st) Harmon Killebrew (2nd) 57.8
1965 AL Zoilo Versalles 46.9 (5th) Rocky Colavito (1st) 52.3
1964 AL Brooks Robinson 51.0 (6th) Mickey Mantle (1st) 59.8
1963 AL Elston Howard 42.3 (16th) Bob Allison (1st) 53.4
1962 AL Mickey Mantle 59.3 (1st) Harmon Killebrew (2nd) 58.3
1961 AL Roger Maris 67.3 (3rd) Mickey Mantle (1st) 74.5
1960 AL Roger Maris 52.2 (2nd) Mickey Mantle (1st) 61.2
1959 AL Nellie Fox 39.9 (20th) Harmon Killebrew (1st) 54.6
1958 AL Jackie Jensen 57.0 (2nd) Mickey Mantle (1st) 65.6
1957 AL Mickey Mantle 70.1 (1st) Ted Williams (2nd) 64.3
1956 AL Mickey Mantle 71.6 (1st) Ted Williams (2nd) 56.4
1955 AL Yogi Berra 46.6 (7th) Mickey Mantle (1st) 62.6
1954 AL Yogi Berra 48.2 (7th) Minnie Minoso (1st) 58.3
1953 AL Al Rosen 62.5 (1st) Larry Doby (2nd) 53.2
1952 AL Mickey Mantle* 47.4 (3rd) Larry Doby (1st) 52.5 *Bobby Shantz
1951 AL Yogi Berra 43.0 (11th) Ted Williams (1st) 62.8
1950 AL Phil Rizzuto 48.1 (14th) Al Rosen (1st) 58.9
1949 AL Ted Williams 76.9 (1st) Vern Stephens (2nd) 59.7
1948 AL Lou Boudreau 56.4 (3rd) Ted Williams (1st) 62.5
1947 AL Joe DiMaggio 47.8 (4th) Ted Williams (1st) 72.7
1946 AL Ted Williams 74.6 (1st) Charlie Keller (2nd) 56.1
1945 AL Eddie Mayo* 34.0 (19th) Roy Cullenbine (1st) 48.0 *Hal Newhouser
1944 AL Vern Stephens* 45.2 (7th) Bob Johnson (1st) 54.0 *Hal Newhouser
1943 AL Luke Appling* 44.0 (5th) Rudy York (1st) 54.1 *Spud Chandler
1942 AL Joe Gordon 49.8 (4th) Ted Williams (1st) 73.5
1941 AL Joe DiMaggio 58.2 (2nd) Ted Williams (1st) 77.5
1940 AL Hank Greenberg 65.7 (1st) Rudy York (2nd) 59.5
1939 AL Joe DiMaggio 52.2 (6th) Ted Williams (1st) 64.2
1938 AL Jimmie Foxx 73.5 (2nd) Hank Greenberg (1st) 74.2
1937 AL Charlie Gehringer 53.1 (8th) Lou Gehrig (1st) 73.3
1936 AL Lou Gehrig 76.9 (1st) Jimmie Foxx (2nd) 67.3
1935 AL Hank Greenberg 63.1 (3rd) Lou Gehrig (1st) 65.1
1934 AL Mickey Cochrane 41.3 (22nd) Lou Gehrig (1st) 72.8
1933 AL Jimmie Foxx 68.5 (1st) Lou Gehrig (2nd) 63.1
1932 AL Jimmie Foxx 77.0 (1st) Lou Gehrig (2nd) 67.5
1931 AL Lou Gehrig* 74.4 (1st) Babe Ruth (2nd) 74.2 *Lefty Grove

So, that was long-winded, huh? Well what does it all mean? First of all, let's figure out how accurate this "statistic" has been at determining the MVP. I've checked the MVPs since the current voting system used by the BBWAA began taking place - that is to say, since 1931 in both leagues. That means, through 2010, there have been 160 MVP awards - 80 in each league (although, as you can see above, there were co-MVPs in 1979 - since neither had the most MVPoints, we're just going to count it as 0/1, not 0/2). 54 times out of 160 (33.75% of the time), the MVPoints leader has been the highest-finishing position player in the MVP voting. However, since 20 pitchers have won the award, and down-ballot MVP votes tend to be awarded a bit more capriciously, perhaps it would be best to exclude the 20 times a pitcher has won the award (which will also remove three "correct" answers, those being Gehrig in 1931, Chuck Klein in 1933, and Johnny Mize in 1939. That increases the odds to 51 out of 140 (~36.4%). Baseball-Reference Win Above Replacement selects the MVP 27 times in the NL, and 27 time in the AL. Why do I bring this up? That's 54 times in 160. Just like this (although WAR is obviously able to count pitchers). So it seems likely that the WAR leader is equally likely as the MVPoints leader to win the MVP. Which brings me to my point.

2011 has been a tricky year for choosing MVPs, in either league. There are those pulling for Justin Verlander, Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, Robinson Cano, and Curtis Granderson in the AL race. In the NL, it's pretty much a two-horse race between Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp. As Baseball-Reference WAR (or rWAR) has it, it would be either Verlander or Bautista in the AL, and Kemp in the NL. Obviously, this particular number I've come up with isn't capable of speaking to Verlander. However, it can speak to the other candidates in the MVP race this year. Here they are:

Name Team BA ScA R+BI Avg G MVPoints
Jose Bautista TOR .302 .593 .405 .433 149 64.5
Miguel Cabrera DET .344 .439 .378 .387 161 62.3
Jacoby Ellsbury BOS .321 .382 .339 .347 158 54.9
Adrian Gonzalez BOS .338 .338 .357 .344 159 54.7 (213 hits, 213 secondary bases!)
Robinson Cano NYY .302 .324 .356 .327 159 52.0
Curtis Granderson NYY .262 .499 .437 .399 156 62.2
Matt Kemp LAD .324 .461 .400 .395 161 63.6
Ryan Braun MIL .332 .435 .391 .386 150 57.9

So there you have it. According to both WAR and MVPoints, your 2011 MVPs will be Jose Bautista and Matt Kemp. Now, I actually think that Verlander and Braun will win the awards, but that's a different matter...