The Baseball Hall of Fame, 2013 Preview

Long time no write!

As of my last writing, Ron Santo was the newest inductee to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Well, on his heels yesterday came the announcement that Barry Larkin would be joining him. Congrats to Barry. My all-time favorite non-Brewers player is going into the Hall! He's really the first player I've ever had any emotional attachment to who got the call to Cooperstown, so I'm pretty excited (although that excitement is just a bit muted by the fact that his election this year was pretty inevitable).

Anyway, what better time to talk about next year's ballot than today? Is it a bit disrespectful to the inductee? Nah - yesterday was his day, and he gets an even bigger day this summer. Rather, I think that, with one of the most loaded ballots in history coming up next year, it's about time we discussed that. So what will next year's ballot look like?

Here are the holdovers from the ballot:

Jack Morris
Jeff Bagwell
Lee Smith
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker
Mark McGwire
Don Mattingly
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Bernie Williams

And here are the (notable/vote-able) guys who are going to appear on the ballot for the first time:

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Sammy Sosa
Curt Schilling
Craig Biggio
Kenny Lofton
Upgrade-of-Jack-Morris-with-worse-press . . . I mean, David Wells

Then, the handful of guys who deserve a couple of votes next year:

Julio Franco
Steve Finley
Reggie Sanders
Jeff Cirillo
Shawn Green
Maybe the all-time record holder for most fingers, Antonio Alfonseca

Compared to this year's first-year class, or as I like to call them, "Bernie Williams and the Pips," it's pretty amazing how stacked next year will be. One of the big predictions people are making is that, because Jack Morris garnered 2/3 of the vote this year, his election is inevitable. Well, I could actually see him taking a step back next year because of the loaded ballot. And I'm not really sure that ANYONE will garner election next year. If I had to guess, I would be Morris, Schilling, or Biggio (in no particular order) who would be most likely, because of the steroid stain on the others. And the next year's not much better. It will add:

Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Tom Glavine
Jeff Kent
Mike Mussina
Luis Gonzalez
Eric Gagne
Moises Alou
Kenny Rogers

All of those guys should get SOME votes, and I would venture to say that Maddux is automatically a first-ballot guy.

Anyway, what I really want to write about is what my ballot would have been/would be this year, next year, and the year after.

First, my strategy. I think the Hall voters are too stingy. Were I one of them, I'd vote for ten guys every year until there weren't even 10 remotely electable guys left. Sure, I might use one of those ten as a "courtesy" vote, but I'd fill my ballot. This year:

Barry Larkin
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Brad Radke

My tenth vote could have just as easily gone to Dale Murphy, but I would have shown Bradke some love. Anyway, with Larkin (and Radke) disappearing from the ballot and the aforementioned new class, here is my preliminary ballot for next year:

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Sammy Sosa
Curt Schilling
Craig Biggio
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire

That was really, really tough. And like I said, I don't really expect anyone on next year's ballot to get elected. So that creates my 2014 ballot:

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Jeff Bagwell
Frank Thomas
Tim Raines
Craig Biggio
Curt Schilling
Mike Piazza
Mark McGwire

That's right, I left off Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, Sammy Sosa, Fred McGriff, Larry Walker, Rafael Palmeiro, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Kenny Lofton, and Dale Murphy (all of whom I see as HOF guys) off the ballot. That's ten guys - a FULL BALLOT. So if no one gets elected next year, which seems reasonable, the backlog becomes pretty much untenable. I don't know that pretty much ANYONE ever gets elected again, because there may always be too many bodies stuck in the doorway, so no one can get through. It will be interesting to see how all of this player out.