Monday, December 3, 2012

The New WARSCOR

So, you all may remember WARSCOR, my attempt at a career rating system which could be my version of Adam Darowski's wWAR.  Of course, there's also the fact that Adam has rolled out his newest thing:  The Hall of Stats.  Well, I got jealous.  One of my biggest criticisms of wWAR was that it was too arbitrary:  it had cutoffs in weird spots, and for no reason. The Hall of Stats has cutoffs at replacement and average.

WARSCOR has the advantage of being adaptable to be used with Win Shares, rWAR, fWAR, (the now-defunct gWAR, which I miss a whole lot, because it used DRA for defense,) and WARP (although that's my least favorite of the group, because it doesn't have full historical stats).  And since I don't actually run a website with it, I am free to just do what I need for a specific project, not sort of figure everything out for every player in history.

But, of course, Adam had to go and come up with something better.  I realized that, perhaps, average is a better comparison than replacement.  Hmph.  It's tough to say.  But here's what I did.  I ran the WARSCOR system using replacement level.  Then I did the exact same thing with Wins Above Average (baseball-reference-style - let's not get ahead of ourselves TOO much).  Then, I took the geometric mean.  Easy as that.  Here it was for Adam's list of the top 9 3B not in the Hall of Fame, with their WARSCOR, WAASCOR, and the Composite:

Stan Hack, 38.4; 21.0; 27.1
Heinie Groh, 37.3; 22.8; 28.3
Ron Cey, 39.3; 23.2; 29.2
Robin Ventura, 39.8; 23.6; 29.7
Darrell Evans, 41.4; 23.5; 30.0
Buddy Bell, 44.6; 27.9; 34.4
Sal Bando, 45.5; 28.4; 35.0 (35.954)
Graig Nettles, 46.2; 28.1; 35.0 (34.958)
Ken Boyer, 46.9; 28.0; 35.1

It's really only when you have a distance of  at least 1.0 that you can start to even say there's a remote distinction between the players.  Therefore, you can see that Bando, Nettles, and Boyer can't be distinguished between in a meaningful way, although it's probably not outrageous to say that they're significantly better than Bell.  But it's also pretty clear that Evans falls into the lower group.  There's a rather HUGE gap between Evans and Bell, and one can see that, if we were to say that people were to go into the Hall of Fame, this might be a good place to separate into different factions.

So, there you have it.  A new, even more convoluted system.  But one that I'm pretty proud of, and would stand behind.

No comments:

Post a Comment