The Over-Thinkers

I always remember being told when it comes to making a decision to measure twice and cut once. This is great advice in being precise when it comes to executing anything. However, I think NFL scouts don't quite get that concept. It seems far too often that many NFL teams over-analyze players to the extent that they are so far in the forest that they lose sight of the trees. Too many times, it seems that players are drafted based off of ridiculous physical attributes instead of what is important, which is their football playing abilities. The NFL is the only professional sport that I can think of where a player can become a first round pick just by looking the part. I mean don't get me wrong: there are players that are drafted too high in all of the major sports, but I never hear of a guard becoming a lottery pick just because of some random track and field number. However, in the NFL we see guys like Matt Jones become a first round just because he showed superhuman abilities at the NFL combine. Yes, he might be able to run faster than a speeding bullet and leap tall buildings in a single bound, but shouldn't the Jaguars have been concerned with the fact that he NEVER PLAYED THE POSITION OF WIDE RECEIVER BEFORE?!?! But it would be unfair to just to criticize the Jaguars. Every team has participated this foolishness and it will only get worse due to the current condition of the NFL scouting process.

One of the biggest problem with the current condition of the NFL scouting process is the amount of time NFL scouts and front office personnel have between the end of the season and the actual draft. The NFL season ends at the beginning of February and the draft takes place at the end of April. This means that scouts and front office personnel have roughly three months to wrap their heads around who they want to welcome into their franchise. By the end of the college football season, it's pretty simple to realize who the best players are just based off their regular season performances and their career performances. Furthermore, at the end of the college football season there are various senior bowl games which provide even more insight into these players. It's not that these games are important but the fact that practices for these all-star games are run by NFL teams, which allows NFL coaches to see how these former college all-stars can perform on a professional level. I understand that underclassmen do not get to perform in these games, but that rule should change for the fact that many of the players that do participate are non-factor players. The amount of time wasted on a 7th round type senior player should be invested into a junior who is projected as a first or second round pick. This may seem unfair to the senior who was a hero at his local school, but this is the NFL. Pro scouts should be more focused on making the right selections from a pool of the best prospects. These players are suppose to be the building blocks of a franchise since they are being paid as so, but so many teams reach for projects and basically flush money away on risky players.

A player like Darius Heyward-Bey should never be drafted in the first round. During his college career he was able to make great plays in the ACC because he was obviously the fastest player on the field. He only ran two routes throughout his career, fly routes and slants. Even though he was a good player in the ACC he never made an all-ACC team, but players like Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree who were all conference players and all NCAA players were drafted behind Mr. Heyward-Bey. Darius Heyward-Bey was the first receiver picked in the 2009 draft due to his blazing 40-yard dash time. He has gone on to be plagued by his limited route running ability and is his inability to catch a football on a consistent basis. I believe for a receiver it's important to know how to catch a football; but what would I know? I just watch football. It seems with the amount of time that these scouts and front office personnel have they seem to second guess their instincts and make egregious decisions. But, it's sort of not just the scouts' fault. Yes, I believe that if the NFL draft was held in the the middle of March or the end of February, more teams would make the right decisions. With the shorter amount of time, I believe more teams would focus on a player's career stats and intangibles and not their superficial attributes. The media's attention to these superficial stats contribute a lot to the awful decisions that are made on draft day.

I have no idea how fast Derrick Rose can run a 40 yard dash and I don't know how much Kevin Durant can bench, but these things that seem to be oh so important to the media in the NFL draft never come up in the NBA draft, which is the pro league that relies on athleticism the most. Though there are cases in the NBA were the height of a player can raise or lower a players stock, in the NFL too many superficial statistics create Darius Heyward-Bey-type choices. The NFL combine is now on television and gives even more attention to the things that can help a NFL player, but not essentially create an NFL player. The media creates so much buzz for a player through the combines and their pro day workouts that it seems that their career production becomes a non-factor in the players evaluation. I understand that the combine workouts and pro day workouts can provide more exposure to players who played at smaller schools, but for guys that played in BCS conferences, their career numbers should not be overshadowed by their superficial makeup. Ryan Leaf was basically a QB created by the media. His size, athleticism, and performance in one game created the most ridiculous QB debate in my NFL lifetime. Ryan Leaf was such a physical freak many people questioned if he was a better QB than a guy named Peyton Manning. Now Manning had a college career which landed him various awards throughout his college career and was a two time top 6 Heisman trophy finalist. Manning shattered SEC records, team records, and was the leader of Tennessee for four years. Manning obviously had the type of college career that warranted him for being the top pick in the draft and there was not another college QB that could compete with him. However, the media decided to create this hype machine around Ryan Leaf who was an unknown until his performance in the Rose Bowl.

The criticism of Manning's lack of athletic ability and awkward throwing motion opened the door for Ryan Leaf to make a case for being the best QB prospect in the draft. Luckily the Colts decided to ignore the fluff and draft the right player. Unfortunately the San Diego Chargers were not that lucky. Needless to say Manning has gone on to become the Hall of Fame QB that we expected him to be while Ryan Leaf has been absent from the NFL for 8 years now and has been regarded as one of the biggest bust in NFL history. And I know many will say,"... but Ryan Leaf was a Heisman trophy finalist during his Junior year so he wasn't just a hype machine." Well all I can say is Danny Wuerffel, Jason White, and Brad Banks were all Heisman trophy finalist too, but I didn't see them become 1st round picks and for obvious reasons.

I know the NFL will never change the draft date to avoid the delay between the end of the season and the actual draft because of the amount of money involved in televising the draft. If the draft was held in March it would have to compete with March Madness which I know the league does not want to do. However, I think a change is desperately in order. I'm tired of seeing the Darrius Heyward-Bey-type of picks in the NFL draft year after year. As a fan I expect more from my team's front office personnel and scouts. The NFL draft has become a big show for the NFL, but I have to wonder at what cost?