Saturday, April 10, 2010

Triple Crown Part II

I have to say-- if I had been allowed to major in baseball in college, I would have written my dissertation on the Triple Crown. I love it. It totally fascinates me. I know it's kind of a weird thing to love about baseball, especially since I'm a person who's getting more and more in advanced statistics and sabermetrics, but I just can't help myself. I mean, people pretty much only know who Joe Medwick is because he's the answer to a great trivia question (that being, "Who's the last player to win the Triple Crown in the NL?"). People are fascinated by Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby winning it twice. Every year, if there's a guy who's even remotely in that neighborhood, we ask each other, "Will this be the year?" It's just cool. In fact, I wouldn't even be surprised if many baseball fans knew the number of Triple Crowns (13) that have been won. If you haven't yet, you might want to check out my earlier post about what the most impressive Triple Crown may be.

Here's the thing about the Triple Crown though-- it's pretty arbitrary. I mean, it's not like the Triple Crown was going to be Doubles, Sac Flies, and Power-Speed Number-- but it didn't have to be AVG, RBI, and HR. In fact, I would say there were six legitimate contenders to be the Triple Crown stats, since they're all old and all useful. I call the the Almanac Stats, since they're usually the things you'll for-sure find in a sports almanac. Of course, the Triple Crown stats make up three of them: AVG, RBI, and HR. But the other three are common sense, as well: H, R, SB. I mean, when you think about it, why couldn't the Triple Crown have measured AVG, R, and HR? Why RBI? Or maybe it should have measured average, power, and speed: AVG, HR, SB. Or how about the ability to bring in runs: RBI, R, HR. There are actually 20 permutations of these statistics. So what did I do? I went ahead and discovered all the instances in which one of these "Alternative Triple Crowns" was won. I learned some pretty interesting stuff in the process, too.
The first thing that's important to know is the number. Earlier, I mentioned the 13 Triple Crowns with which everyone is familiar. Well, by this calculation, there have actually been 184 Triple Crowns-- 20 of them by Ty Cobb in 1909, when he led the AL in all 6 of the categories in question. Obviously, this creates a bit of a discrepancy, when one player accounts for over 10% of what we're counting. In that regard, I have a little explaining to do. Obviously, all leading all six categories would give one 20 Triple Crowns. Leading in only three categories would give a player only one. Those are clear. Leading in four categories would give one, conveniently, four. And, finally, leading in five categories would give a player 10 Triple Crowns. In case you're wondering, there have been a total of 78 players to win some sort of Triple Crown-- 35 in the NL, and 43 in the AL.

Here's the breakdown of the various ways in which people have led. First, all six categories:
  • Ty Cobb, 1909 (AVG, RBI, HR, H, R, SB)
Next is leaders in five categories:
  • Carl Yastrzemski, 1967 (AVG, RBI, HR, H, R)
  • Joe Medwick, 1937 (AVG, RBI, HR, H, R)
  • Rogers Hornsby, 1922 (AVG, RBI, HR, H, R)
  • Ty Cobb, 1911 (AVG, RBI, H, R, SB)
  • Nap Lajoie, 1901 (AVG, RBI, HR, H, R)
Note that Cobb is the only player above to lead in SB and not HR. His eight were second to Home Run Bakers eleven for the league lead. Also, he is, obviously, the only player above to fail to win the actual Triple Crown.

Moving on, here are the four-category winners:
  • Frank Robinson, 1966 (AVG, RBI, HR, R)
  • Mickey Mantle, 1956 (AVG, RBI, HR, R)
  • Stan Musial, 1948 (AVG, RBI, H, R)
  • Ted Williams, 1947 (AVG, RBI, HR, R)
  • Snuffy Strinweiss, 1945 (AVG, H, R, SB)
  • Ted Williams, 1942 (AVG, RBI, HR, R)
  • Chuck Klein, 1933 (AVG, RBI, HR, H)
  • Chuck Klein, 1932 (HR, H, R, SB)
  • Lou Gehrig, 1931 (RBI, HR, H, R)
  • George Sisler, 1922 (AVG, H, R, SB)
  • Rogers Hornsby, 1921 (AVG, RBI, H, R)
  • Ty Cobb, 1915 (AVG, H, R, SB)
  • Honus Wagner, 1908 (AVG, RBI, H, SB)
  • Ty Cobb, 1907 (AVG, RBI, H, SB)
Also note here that Cobb has been represented in every category. Another interesting thing of note is that the quality of the players has, in general, gone down. In the first category, Cobb was alone. This does not mean that Cobb is the best player of all time. It merely means that, in the first category, it would be extremely unlikely to have a season like that unless you were a Hall of Fame-type player, like Cobb. In the second category, there are a bunch of Hall-of-Famers, but of course the list also includes Joe Medwick, who was a good player who had a great 1937. He is in the Hall as well, but there are many who question his presence in Cooperstown. Next, in this category, while there are many Hall members present, there are a few conspicuous names showing up here that one probably wouldn't expect, like George Sisler (in the Hall, but, again, questionably), Chuck Klein (twice! And a Hall member by an even slimmer margin than Sisler, who was helped by a great park to hit in and had only 3 really good season-- albeit they were great), and, finally, Snuffy Stirnweiss-- the first non-Hall-member to show up. Stirnweiss entered the majors at 24 in 1943 (War-time replacement, anyone?). He played very well during the War (a "coincidence," I'm sure), and then, after back-to-back .300 seasons in 1944 and '45, became a .250 hitter. Stirnweiss may be as close to a hitting version of Hal Newhouser that there is: a guy who may have been a pretty decent player, but it's extremely difficult to tell because his prime coincides with WWII. I'll bore you with all 58 of the other Triple Crown winners:
  • Matt Holliday, 2007 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Alex Rodriguez, 2007 (HR, RBI, R)
  • Albert Pujols, 2003 (AVG, H, R)
  • Alfonso Soriano 2002 (H, R, SB)
  • Ichiro Suzuki, 2001 (AVG, H, SB)
  • Todd Helton, 2000 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Ken Griffey, Jr., 1997 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Dante Bichette, 1995 (RBI, HR, H)
  • Albert Belle, 1995 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Al Oliver, 1982 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Mike Schmidt, 1981 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Rickey Henderson, 1981 (H, R, SB)
  • Jim Rice, 1978 (RBI, HR, H)
  • George Foster, 1977 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Rod Carew, 1977 (AVG, H, R)
  • Reggie Jackson, 1973 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Joe Torre, 1971 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Tony Oliva, 1964 (AVG, H, R)
  • Hank Aaron, 1963 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Tommy Davis, 1962 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Roger Maris, 1961 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Hank Aaron, 1957 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Al Rosen, 1953 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Stan Musial, 1952 (AVG, H, R)
  • Ted Williams, 1949 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Johnny Mize, 1947 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Stan Musial, 1946 (AVG, H, R)
  • Bill Nicholson, 1944 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Snuffy Stirnweiss, 1944 (H, R, SB)
  • Ted Williams, 1941 (AVG, HR, R)
  • Paul Waner, 1934 (AVG, H, R)
  • Lou Gehrig, 1934 (AVG, RBI, HR)
  • Jimmie Foxx, 1933 (AVG, RBI, HR)
  • Jimmie Foxx, 1932 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Chuck Klein, 1931 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Charlie Gehringer, 1929 (H, R, SB)
  • Babe Ruth, 1928 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Paul Waner, 1927 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Babe Ruth, 1926 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Rogers Hornsby, 1925 (AVG, RBI, HR)
  • Rogers Hornsby, 1924 (AVG, H, R)
  • Babe Ruth, 1924 (AVG, HR, R)
  • Babe Ruth, 1923 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Babe Ruth, 1921 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Rogers Hornsby, 1920 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Babe Ruth, 1920 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Babe Ruth, 1919 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Ty Cobb, 1917 (AVG, H, SB)
  • Gavvy Cravath, 1915 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Gavvy Cravath, 1913 (RBI, HR, H)
  • Heinie Zimmerman, 1912 (AVG, HR, H)
  • Sherry Magee, 1910 (AVG, RBI, R)
  • Ty Cobb, 1908 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Cy Seymour, 1905 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Harry Davis, 1905 (RBI, HR, R)
  • Nap Lajoie, 1904 (AVG, RBI, H)
  • Honus Wagner, 1902 (RBI, R, SB)
  • Jesse Burkett, 1901 (AVG, H, R)
Holy Babe Ruth! If you didn't read that whole list, I don't blame you, so here's the skinny: Babe Ruth a lot of times, Ty Cobb makes his customary appearance(s), and there are a whole lot of guys listed that you might not expect, like Matt Holliday, Alfonso Soriano, Al Oliver, Tony Oliva, Tommy Davis, Bill Nicholson, Sherry Magee, and Harry Davis. It's kind of a fun list, though. And I think there are some players and seasons worth remembering on here.

Here are some other random facts that you probably wouldn't have wanted to put together for yourself.

The most commonly won Triple Crown is, not surprisingly, the RBI/HR/R version. It has been done 33 times, first by Nap Lajoie in 1901, and most recently by Alex Rodriguez in 2007. Had this been the Triple Crown, Babe Ruth would have won six Triple Crowns, Ted Williams would have three, and Hank Aaron would have won two.

There are only two of the other versions which are more common than the one we recognize as the Triple Crown. One is AVG/RBI/H, with 21 occurrences (First by Lajoie in 1901 and most recently by Matt Holliday in 2007-- which, along with Alex Rodriguez that same season, is the most recent Triple Crown of any kind). The other, with 19 occurrences, is the AVG/H/R variety, done first by Lajoie in 1901 (of course) and most recently by Albert Pujols in 2003.

The AVG/RBI/R variety has been won 13 times, just like the traditional Triple Crown. It is also a very similar list to the traditional one. In fact, the two have 9 common seasons. This version, though, includes Sherry Magee (1910), Ty Cobb (1911), Rogers Hornsby's 1921 season (instead of 1925), and Stan Musial (1948). Those left off are Hornsby's aforementioned 1925 season, Chuck Klein (1933), Jimmie Foxx (1933), and Lou Gehrig (1934).

The AVG/HR/SB and RBI/HR/SB Triple Crowns have only been won once each: both (obviously) by Ty Cobb in 1909. No one has done it since. It's a good thing these were not chosen as the Triple Crown stats-- it would be a boring history.

In case you're wondering, it has happened fairly often that the winner of one of these Triple Crowns is also the MVP. In fact, since 1931 (since which time there has been an award given in each league, each season), there have been 46 instances of a Triple Crown of one sort or another. Of those, 22 have won the MVP (including eight consecutively from 1966-1981-- although Rickey Henderson was also a Triple Crown winner in 1981, but was not AL MVP). Here are all the Triple Crown MVPs, including the four from the time before the award's continuous existence:
  • Ty Cobb, 1911
  • George Sisler, 1922
  • Rogers Hornsby, 1925
  • Paul Waner, 1927
  • Chuck Klein, 1932
  • Jimmie Foxx, 1932
  • Jimmie Foxx, 1933
  • Joe Medwick, 1937
  • Stan Musial, 1946
  • Stan Musial, 1948
  • Ted Williams, 1948 (seriously-- what did this guy have to do to buy an MVP?)
  • Al Rosen, 1953
  • Mickey Mantle, 1956
  • Hank Aaron, 1957
  • Roger Maris, 1961
  • Frank Robinson, 1966
  • Carl Yastrzemski, 1967
  • Joe Torre, 1971
  • Reggie Jackson, 1973
  • George Foster, 1977
  • Rod Carew, 1977
  • Jim Rice, 1978
  • Mike Schmidt, 1981
  • Ken Griffey, Jr., 1997
  • Ichiro Suzuki, 2001
  • Alex Rodriguez, 2007
Pretty impressive list, huh?

Here's one just for fun. What if we took the exact opposite of the Triple Crown as we know it? Let's use H/R/SB:
  • Ty Cobb, 1909
  • Ty Cobb, 1911
  • Ty Cobb, 1915
  • George Sisler, 1922
  • Charlie Gehringer, 1929
  • Chuck Klein, 1932
  • Snuffy Stirnweiss, 1944
  • Snuffy Stirnweiss, 1945
  • Rickey Henderson, 1981
  • Alfonso Soriano, 2002
Pretty weird, no?

Now, there are three real possibilities, in my opinion, for what could have been chosen as the Triple Crown, rather than the one that was chosen. They basically involve substituting similar statistics for one another. One thing that I find particularly interesting about the Triple Crown is that AVG rather than H was chosen, since the other two are counting stats rather than rate stats. Had H been the dominant statistic, much of Triple Crown lore would have been the same, but there would have been some really, really interesting changes. Here would be the winners:
  • Nap Lajoie, 1901
  • Ty Cobb, 1909
  • Gavvy Cravath, 1913
  • Rogers Hornsby, 1922
  • Lou Gehrig, 1931
  • Chuck Klein, 1933
  • Joe Medwick, 1937
  • Carl Yastrzemski, 1967
  • Jim Rice, 1978
  • Dante Bichette, 1995
Personally, that appears to me like it could have reasonably been chosen as the "real" Triple Crown. Weird to think of Cravath, Rice, and Bichette as Triple Crown winners, though, isn't it? The second list would be using R instead of RBI. This produces another intriguing list:
  • Nap Lajoie, 1901
  • Ty Cobb, 1909
  • Rogers Hornsby, 1922
  • Babe Ruth, 1924
  • Joe Medwick, 1937
  • Ted Williams, 1941
  • Ted Williams, 1942
  • Ted Williams, 1947
  • Mickey Mantle, 1956
  • Frank Robinson, 1966
  • Carl Yastrzemski, 1967
You may notice that nine of the familiar 13 Triple Crown seasons appear here. The two additions would be Williams in 1941 and Ruth in 1924. Another option, certainly, would have been to take the logic of the last two lists and combine them. The result would be the H/R/HR Triple Crown. It's winners:
  • Nap Lajoie, 1901
  • Ty Cobb, 1909
  • Rogers Hornsby, 1922
  • Lou Gehrig, 1931
  • Chuck Klein, 1932
  • Joe Medwick, 1937
  • Carl Yastrzemski, 1967
As you can see, a lot of the "usual suspects" show up here again. In fact, there are only two that aren't "traditional" Triple Crown winners. In fact, though, they're the same players, only in different years (Gehrig won his actual Triple Crown in 1934, and Klein won his the following year, in 1933).

Finally, there is my favorite choice for what the Triple Crown should have been, as it is what would require the greatest variety of skills and is not reliant upon other teammates: BA/HR/SB. I mentioned this one earlier as a very fortunate one that was not chosen, as it's only been done once, of course by Ty Cobb in 1909.

If you'd like access to my spreadsheet which has all these data, shoot me an e-mail or leave a comment on this blog entry. All research performed on baseball-reference.com.

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